Many of us are expecting residential sales to normalize sometime next year, but today the Statesman has a gloomy outlook. They usually do, as any strong opinion will sell more news than a weak one, however this outlook has some similarities with what local Austin real estate experts expect.
Mark Dotzour of the Texas A&M Real Estate Center has an expert voice that many of us trust when it comes to Central Texas real estate. Dotzour expects job growth to slow to 1.1% in Austin in the next year, a factor Austin depends on for its strength. This still represents growth, but should correspond with a decline in new housing starts as fewer Austin immigrants will need homes. Dotzour expects our economy to spend a year leveling out the effects of the decline in Austin’s growth rate and the growth of our residential real estate inventory.
Austin’s real estate climate, like its weather, overall maintains a better outlook that the rest of the country. While harsh real estate storms hit the coasts, Austin has remained fairly sheltered, receiving only a trickling effect of the national forecast. Dotzour expects the summer of 2009 to be key. This is when the influx of new builders that we saw in 2005-2006 will be tested, and those who fail will likely be forced out of business. According to Dotzour’s predictions, those who can hang on through to 2010 will likely see the new home market pick back up.
If you ask me, this is good news. A survival of the fittest for builders, if you will. Those who create the bad reputation that the good builders have to fight will hopefully move on. I am hoping for the same for real estate agents. Those who are passionate about their education and careers will weather the storm while those looking for that quick buck will move on to other ventures.
In the end, Austin’s resilience and relatively low cost of living means experts expect Austin to reep the benefits of the upturn of the economy, whether it appears in 2009, 2010, or later.
About Aria Kilpatrick
