The current newz buzz is all about the changing state of the economy lately, and the changes we are seeing in its behavior and the outlook that these chances can provide us. Prices and sales are up in Austin real estate, but recovery is still a long process and not all prices, areas, and parts of our economy are affected the same way.
Recently, leading central Texas real estate expert and Chief Economist for the Texas A&M Real Estate Center, Mark Dotzour, spoke detailing his outlook for the changing economy, the stabilization of our market, and recovery possibilities.
Political cartoon featured in the White Plains Republic in May 1932
Best Case Scenario, according to Mark Dotzour
“…earnest recovery in the stock markets after the Labor Day vacation, which will be followed by favorable corporate earnings in the fourth quarter of this year.”
“The market’s current performance, while positive, is not yet an earnest recovery. If that best case scenario does take place, the nation will see layoffs end by the end of this year and a ‘jobless recovery’ begin in 2010.”
Worst Case Scenario, according to Mark Dotzour
“The worst case scenario would mean the securitized lending market not reopening, a continuing propping up of bad banks and businesses and continued hesitation from investors and businesses. In that worst case scenario, unemployment could rise to more than 10 percent and the country would see commodity and price deflation.”
The Austin Scenario, according to Mark Dotzour
In Austin, Dotzour predicted job growth will stay roughly where it is – at negative 1.5 percent – for the next year, adding that Austin will still outperform the U.S. when it comes to job growth.
