Austin Real Estate Update 7/2009: Market Health Chart

Dynamic Austin Real Estate Market Health Chart

Here is the latest and greatest (and most accurate data out there) for you to visualize the trends you hear and read about.

About the real estate data & statistics on my site:

I’ve received emails about how my graphs look differently that Zillow’s/Trulia’s, and believe me, those websites’ notoriously inaccurate and incomplete information can be the bane of my existence. My promise to you is that this data is the absolutely most complete and accurate data out there! While other websites use error-ridden tax data & user-submitted listing data, my data combines sales from the national, state, and local MLS systems as well as builder associations and is compiled by the esteemed Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. Addiitonally, you may see data from Austin Board of Realtors®, Texas Association of Realtors®, National Association of Realtors® (and related MLS systems), Austin Chamber of Commerce, the US Census Bureau, and the US Bureau of Labor and Statistics.

In the News: Home Scam?

I was recently interviewed by Fox 7 news regarding a new Craigslist scam that used my own home (that is for sale) as bait. Moral of the story is be careful who you’re dealing with!

Pending Home Sales Are Up Nationally

Austin bucks many trends, as does Texas in general. This year, we are holding our pricing but are seeing slow traffic locally, mostly due to low consumer confidence driven by national angst. But good news has been trickling in. Here is the latest from the National Association of Realtors® showing after recent numbers show a rise in pending home sales.

In the News: Austin “low risk” for home price correction

From the Austin Business Journal’s article “Austin ‘low risk’ for home price correction”

The Austin metropolitan area is not likely to see a major correction in home prices, according to PMI Mortgage Insurance Co.’s First Quarter 2009 Economic and Real Estate Trends Report.

When it comes to risk of a home price correction, Austin is the 17th most-stable among the nation’s 50 largest cities, the report shows. However, all four of Texas’ other major cities are among the top 10 most-stable on the list.

The index ranks the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas according to the likelihood that home prices will be lower in two years. It uses home price appreciation, employment, affordability, excess housing supply, interest rates, and foreclosure activity to determine these probabilities. The Miami area had the highest risk, followed Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif, and Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach; Fla.

According to the latest report from www.ofheo.gov the U.S. government’s website regarding real estate values – Austin ranked #1 for appreciation for the 3rd quarter of 2008 with a 5.62% appreciation rate. Although that may not seem like much – it is a welcome site compared to some of the double digit declines in other areas of the nation. The rental market is very strong and sales have picked up since the beginning of the year. With builders offering big discounts and rates in the low 5% range, we are seeing first timers and move up buyers starting to get off of the fence.

When the market gets to you…

picture-10It happens to the best of us, we all get bummed out from time to time.  I literally grew up in this business.  I spent my first 7 years in the first Corias home ever built, my family survived the 80s and the tech bust and everything inbetween.  And we’re set up to survive this time around as well.

But to be honest, this week, it has all really gotten to me.  I’m just in a funk over both the attitudes toward our current times as well as the ripples we are feeling here in Austin.  I was thinking about how now is different from the good ole’ days of the middle of this decade and other strong markets.  What’s different?  I noticed how every time I found a home for someone, I could give them 10 reasons why it would be hard to resell.  And I mean every time.  It got me thinking, all of these homes would sell in under 100 days a few years ago, even the one with no back yard, even the one with 5 bedrooms and only 2 bathrooms.  In up markets, pretty much everything sells.  Now we are watching buyers as they sit and age on the fence.  In the meantime, the homes are aging, rates are going up, and opportunities are being passed by.

I don’t think that an aged buyer is the best buyer.  I don’t mean how old you are, I mean how old your search for your next home is.  Waiting and waiting serves no one, yet there are justifications for being cautious.  Will that home resell?  My new answer is yes!  Maybe not quickly in the current climate, but in a strong market, anything is possible.  Someone will love the same things about that home that you love.  Maybe you will sell in another slow market and it may take 6-9 months to sell your home instead of 60-90 days.  But it will sell.  And would you be this picky in an up market?  Of course not.  If you wait months to put in an offer in a sellers market in Austin, you’re very likely out of luck.

But buyers are faced with troubles as well, not just sellers.  Sure, the amazingly low interest rates mean a great deal and quite possibly more house and there are still plenty of loans out there.  Those with troubled credit can even find seller-financing.  But buyers often also have to make a great deal of decisions.  “Do we sell our house first?  Should we refinance instead?  Should we remodel?”  These are all legitimate questions.  And the answers may be easier than you think.

Don’t torture yourself! These decisions are emotional ones.  When I have an emotional decision, I like to bring in a third, non-emotional party who can objectively explain facts and information to me.  This is my job in these times.  Not to be bummed out, not to cry over slow sales, not to cry over the state of the economy… to use my knowledge and experience in this industry to help you decide if it is the right time for you to move, refinance, or remodel.

You may think I just want your listing or you as a buyer client.  But there are other ways I get paid, and if you need help with any of these questions over refinancing, remodeling, etc., ask me!  I’d be more than happy to help you with your decisions, weiging options, and letting you just generally pick my brain so you can benefit from the knowledge and experience I have gained from nearly 3 decades in construction, remodeling, sales, and financing it all.

I’m still allowed to get bummed out from time to time, but when we do, remember there is always someone out there with an objective view that can help.

In the News: Austin continues to be attractive to foreign real estate investors

international real estateThe Austin Business Journal published a piece on Austin’s value in the international real estate market.  Austin IS holding strong, and international investors are capitalizing on what local investors are shying away from:  opportunity.  With steady growth and real estate appreciation rates, Austin is stable.  With the real estate world crashing in on itself all around us, Austin is stable.

The report from the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate ranks members’ top cities for U.S. and global investment in 2009. Austin ties for 11th place in the new survey, up from 16th place in 2008.

The only element to Austin’s real estate market that is not stable is the emotional factor.  There is no escaping the news and the horror stories of what is happening around the country and Austinites wonder “are we next”?  While we worry, foreign investors are setting themselves up to make money from our panic.

With 37 percent of member’s votes in the survey, the United States ranked first among nations in terms of opportunities for capital appreciation, followed by Brazil, China, the United Kingdom and India in that order.

The world knows that we are strong, and that Austin is one of the strongest cities in the country.  Why don’t we?

In the News: What’s Selling in Austin

The Austin-American Statesman published a story yesterday, “A closer look at what’s selling in Austin.”  This is a big question on potential seller’s minds.  Sure, you want to get in on the great deals on the buyer’s end with amazing interest rates, but will you take a hit selling your current home?

central austin hyde park bungalow homeMy advice is in a move-up situation, you’re getting ahead of the game.  Not only are you getting bigger savings on the home you’re buying than any losses in the home you’re selling, but you’re also able to lock in amazing interest rates (saving you much more for years to come).

But what pockets in Austin are holding up the strongest to today’s economic fears?  The Statesman reports that the market is still slow moving, great for buyers, frustrating for sellers.  What IS selling are those properties under $400,000.  The lower prices have less risk, and this is probably an area were professional investors and flippers are able to best take advantage of the sluggish market without over-extending themselves.  The median sales price in November was $180,000, well within reach of many novice flippers and investors who are willing to weather this storm to make a few bucks.

The Statesman also reports that on the high-end, northwest Travis county is holding the strongest.  On the low-end, it is little surprise that “fixer-uppers” are dominating, again likely with those hoping to take advantage of the current economic and emotional climate.

In the end, it appears that those who are so afraid to loose money will likely end up losing the biggest as their fears inhibit them from taking advantage of this rare Buyer’s Market in Austin’s home market.

In the News: Are the photos for that online listing fake?

KVUE-Online Searching

Online searching is the way more than 80% of buyers begin their searches, but photos and virtual tours are still no replacement for seeing the properties in person.  It’s amazing how different a property can be in person than in photos.  And in a buyer’s market where discounts can be found for shortcomings, it is even more important to search diligently both on and offline before spending any money.

This is harder for out of state buyers and renters relocating to Austin, but no less important.  Whether you’re buying or renting, it is best to find temporary housing, even a hotel, before you sign any lease or purchase paperwork.  In 2005 and 2006, our strong seller’s market left many investors and even some families tempted to buy sight-unseen.  Now that we are in a rare buyer’s market, take a long, careful look around the property first!  Don’t trust photos, even if sent by a Realtor®, because photos and virtual tours are no substitute for touching and feeling your next home.

For more in KVUE’s report, visit http://www.kvue.com/video/?z=y&nvid=319889.

In the News: KVUE Reports Positive Outlook for Austin’s Real Estate

KVUE 2009 AUstin Real Estate Outlook
The local media is (at last) reporting what Realtors® have been telling you for a year… there IS light at the end of the tunnel and Austin will not ever see the huge decline in prices that markets that boomed to the tune of 25%+ appreciation a year are now facing.  Home ARE selling, both in the low and high ends.

The plus to today’s market are the historically LOW, LOW interest rates and the opportunity to buy while home sales are slow and while we are still in a buyer’s market.

Resales are also great buys in Austin.  There are many, many deals out there to buy a resale home for a price much below the cost to recreate the home today with soaring lot costs and tighening city oridnances.

For more on KVUE’s report, visit their website at http://www.kvue.com/video/?z=y&nvid=319114.